Molson Hart

Not sure I understand but all I'm saying here is that even in Bergamo I don't believe ~60% of the population has been infected and certainly not in Lombardy as a whole.

sure,lombardy I don't believe it,but bergamo appearts to have seriously lot like 0.6% of its total population going by excess mortality(population fatality rate) if herd inmunity is there at 60%, that's even consistent with the 0.8%-1% IFR it says there. why don't you believe it?

Bergamo is a fairly large city. I'm having a hard time prevalence of immunity was ~60% over there at the same time it was only ~20% at most in Milan. I think it's more plausible that the IFR is actually very high over there because something really went horribly in nursing homes.

Bergamo proper is like 110k people. Had less than 1k beds in nursing homes and like 200-250 dead there.

I'm not sure what your conclusion is here, but nursing homes were just one example (the most obvious) of something that could have gone wrong and increased the IFR a lot, it could also be nosocomial infections in hospitals or whatever.

My point is that I don't believe for a second that ~60% of the population has been infected in Bergamo where in Milan it's probably less than 20% even now.

Btw my guesstimate for BG province prevalence is at 45-50%, only some areas over 60

I don't get how a whole province could be so high while New York city is at 20%. Well if it's only a million people though...