@mlipsitch wouldn't we have observed higher serology estimates most places by now if the Los Alamos doubling times (even given slowed transmission post intervention) were accurate, given when community transmission began?
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r0 of 5.7 seems high but is believable. 1. Spain population 47 million 2. Serological prevalence 5% 3. 2.35 million infections so far. 4. r0 estimate = 5.7 5. 5.7^x = 2,350,000, x = # cycles = 8.4 6. Assume 2 week cycle 7. 8.4 * 2 weeks = 17 weeks = 4 monthspic.twitter.com/SMjq9AIRwE
We are sooooooo early into this pandemic. Have fun getting 87% herd immunity everyone. https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1261363660032626689?s=20 …
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