I suspect most people believe that the United States pays for its imports of manufactures (cars, toys, shoes, phones, etc) by exporting software and semiconductors ... But that isn't exactly what the trade data shows. 1/npic.twitter.com/1bESqrrqX9
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I suspect most people believe that the United States pays for its imports of manufactures (cars, toys, shoes, phones, etc) by exporting software and semiconductors ... But that isn't exactly what the trade data shows. 1/npic.twitter.com/1bESqrrqX9
The "Wintel" (windows/ microsoft + intel) trade surplus used to be around 0.3 pp of US GDP. But it has slid over time to about 0.15 pp of US GDP -- a third of the Boeing +GE aircraft and aircraft engines surplus as its peak. 2/npic.twitter.com/mXJEdm32Ed
US exports of software (as measured) haven't grown over the last 15 years as a share of GDP .... US exports of chips have fallen as a share of US GDP 3/npic.twitter.com/RrG1lgsvcP
The lesson here is that the actual trade data often doesn't map to popular (or equity market) expectations. Software exports are way smaller than people think (and a quarter go to Ireland --which is a hint as to why). And chip manufacturing has increasingly been offshored 4/n
Which is part of the backstory behind today's TSMC announcement ... 5/5https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-company-to-build-advanced-semiconductor-factory-in-arizona-11589481659 …
I'm not a chip supply chain expert, but why is TSMC doing this? US government subsidies? Is Taiwan really that bullied by China that they cannot build their chip plants anywhere but the USA? Why not Vietnam?
Probably a combination of cautionary diversification (avoid future tariffs and the business risk of having production in one place), reasonable cost, highly skilled labor force, strong intellectual property rights, and I'm sure some subsidies.
Reasonable cost? Compared to...Switzerland? Out of my area of expertise, but does the US really have that much domestic chip demand? I guess if these chips went into phones assembled in Asia the tariffs would only apply to the portions not manufactured here.
US chip demand is the demand embedded in the end product. shipping costs of chips are trivial
Molson Hart Retweeted 傅道格 Doug Fuller
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