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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser May 14
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      I suspect most people believe that the United States pays for its imports of manufactures (cars, toys, shoes, phones, etc) by exporting software and semiconductors ... But that isn't exactly what the trade data shows. 1/npic.twitter.com/1bESqrrqX9

      7 replies 25 retweets 73 likes
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    2. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser May 14
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      The "Wintel" (windows/ microsoft + intel) trade surplus used to be around 0.3 pp of US GDP. But it has slid over time to about 0.15 pp of US GDP -- a third of the Boeing +GE aircraft and aircraft engines surplus as its peak. 2/npic.twitter.com/mXJEdm32Ed

      1 reply 3 retweets 26 likes
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    3. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser May 14
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      US exports of software (as measured) haven't grown over the last 15 years as a share of GDP .... US exports of chips have fallen as a share of US GDP 3/npic.twitter.com/RrG1lgsvcP

      5 replies 4 retweets 19 likes
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    4. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser May 14
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      The lesson here is that the actual trade data often doesn't map to popular (or equity market) expectations. Software exports are way smaller than people think (and a quarter go to Ireland --which is a hint as to why). And chip manufacturing has increasingly been offshored 4/n

      6 replies 4 retweets 36 likes
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    5. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser May 14
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      Which is part of the backstory behind today's TSMC announcement ... 5/5https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-company-to-build-advanced-semiconductor-factory-in-arizona-11589481659 …

      2 replies 4 retweets 22 likes
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    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 14
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      Replying to @Brad_Setser

      I'm not a chip supply chain expert, but why is TSMC doing this? US government subsidies? Is Taiwan really that bullied by China that they cannot build their chip plants anywhere but the USA? Why not Vietnam?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco May 14
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @Brad_Setser

      Probably a combination of cautionary diversification (avoid future tariffs and the business risk of having production in one place), reasonable cost, highly skilled labor force, strong intellectual property rights, and I'm sure some subsidies.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 14
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      Replying to @svrnco @Brad_Setser

      Reasonable cost? Compared to...Switzerland? Out of my area of expertise, but does the US really have that much domestic chip demand? I guess if these chips went into phones assembled in Asia the tariffs would only apply to the portions not manufactured here.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser May 14
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @svrnco

      US chip demand is the demand embedded in the end product. shipping costs of chips are trivial

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 14
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      Replying to @Brad_Setser @svrnco

      Still though, why not Vietnam?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @Brad_Setser @svrnco

      Molson Hart Retweeted 傅道格 Doug Fuller

      Worth a readhttps://twitter.com/FuDaoge/status/1261161656408633346?s=20 …

      Molson Hart added,

      傅道格 Doug Fuller @FuDaoge
      1/there's a lot not to be excited about in this announcement. first, the fab is going to be small and paid for in part by the federal government https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-company-to-build-advanced-semiconductor-factory-in-arizona-11589481659 … via @WSJ
      Show this thread
      8:56 AM - 15 May 2020
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      • Samuel Lee
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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