The hierarchy of from whom founders should take advice: Founders who've done it twice > Founders who've done it once > Venture capitalists who've never done it > Business school profs > Everyone else
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I've heard this argument and logically it flows. I'm not sure of the premise. I'd much rather take advice from someone who has made a thoughtful study of life and business. Esp since I've gotten terrible advice from some folks who just got lucky.
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Replying to @mgirdley
I think the key is to look for people who've, over a long period, been in the area where you are seeking expertise and it is important that that area have some sort of filtering mechanism like getting fired, going bankrupt, or whatever. (I'm just rephrasing Taleb...)
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @mgirdley
For example, a guy who built a 10 million dollar business over 30 years will give you better advice than someone who, within a year, flipped his business for 20 million.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Here's where I'll push back a bit: The been-there-done-that crowd is great but only gives good advice if they're thoughtful and insightful. Choosing one, I'll take the latter.
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Replying to @mgirdley
My sample size is small, but I'll take the been-there-done-that crowd. There's a lot of bullshit false wisdom in the latter group and they deliver it with the same confidence.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @mgirdley
Generally agree, but will add that you need to strongly filter for survivor's bias. Depending on the sector/niche and type of biz, you see alot of btdt founders that succeeded via gameman-ship and not really biz fundamentals.
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It will always be there. The longer they’ve been in the game without exiting the sample the less likely it will be survivorship bias.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @mgirdley
Yep, you have to define what it is you are trying to "survive" and then try to filter out the noise based on that.
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