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A disturbing hypothetical: Suppose HIV was an airborne illness, like covid, instead of a sexually transmitted one. Suppose that it was first discovered in January 2020. How long would it take us to figure out that this seemingly innocent airborne flu would go on to cause AIDS?pic.twitter.com/72GxbCZ6wL
The first known HIV death in the United States occurred in 1969. It would take another 10 years before the virus was properly identified in 1980. In many people, the illness hibernates for almost 10 years, before you contract AIDS, killing you within about a year.pic.twitter.com/Sy31q5vQne
It looks like there is a very low chance that COVID19 could, after a period of dormancy, cause something like AIDS. There are two main types of tests for HIV and COVID: 1. PCR virus tests 2. Serological antibody testspic.twitter.com/o7cfgFBEfk
1 tests for presence of the virus in the area that was swabbed, looking for its DNA. 2 tests for the presence of antibodies in your blood. The dashed line in the below graph of HIV would be tested by a PCR virus test. The dotted line would be tested by a serological test.pic.twitter.com/RLmluhpVZ0
Because people are testing NEGATIVE for COVID (not to be confused the antibodies which fight the virus) after infection, we can probably assume there is no COVID equivalent of AIDS. Note that is is not the case with HIV, wherein you test positive after initial infection.pic.twitter.com/TjM4aUFnij
With this said, there are reports of people testing positive for the virus after testing negative and after recovering. That's not good but is likely: 1. dead virus in the system 2. no full recovery 3. false positive
Thanks to @QFMV1 to @lbr_snt who corrected me and pointed out that this would be the case.
WOULD BE GREAT IF SOMEONE WHOSE AREA OF EXPERTISE CAN CONFIRM THAT I'M RIGHT HERE!
/end
Sources:
1. https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-aids/fact-sheets/19/46/the-stages-of-hiv-infection …
2.https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/57/5/712/310729 …
HIV is estimated to have crossed over to humans around 1900. So it was in Africa for almost a century and no one noticed! It was in Haiti for ~20 years and no one noticed.
I just read that in the timeline of HIV. I think we'd notice it much faster, given how many more people are infected, but the idea that covid could present major latent long-term effects is super frightening.
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