NEW MATH PUZZLE Suppose 1% of vaccinated kids become autistic and only 0.2% of unvaccinated kids do, and that only 5% are unvaccinated. Suppose also that 1% of the population are jokers who answer poll questions randomly. Suggest a protocol to survey parents reliably about this.
An inelegant (maybe) solution: Q1: Are you a joker? Q2: Are you a joker? Q3: Are you a joker? Q4: Are you a joker? Q5: Are you a joker? Q6: Was your child vaccinated? Q7: Is your child autistic? Because jokers answer randomly, after asking 5 times, you have >95% confidence
-
-
Well, it was a long survey with lots of unrelated questions and opportunities to build in redundancy. In practice a joker doesn’t want to expend a lot of effort trying to be consistent with all the previous answers, but your suggestion would alert them.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.