Molson Hart

My toy company's sales were up about 12.5% 2019 vs. 2018 but total profits fell 29% (after netting out distorting expenses and other income) - 40% of our catalog had declining profitability - 42% of our catalog had declining sales - 38% had declining total profits

I don’t know your industry. Are these good or bad numbers?

I don't know my industry either haha. Probably bad? I'm not totally sure. I didn't check it for '17 vs '18 where profits improved. The fact that total profits fell implies it is bad I would think.

One trick I’ve used is to look at public company filings. For example, I was trying to figure out the right amount to spend on advertising for a business. Looked at what the others were spending and then said “Eff it” and 2x’ed their number! It worked but YMMV.

The other thing is asking suppliers. Turned out they are the biggest chatty cathys. they started giving me all kinds of advice or guidance. Some of it was BS but mostly helpful.

I've learned quite a bit from reading 10k's but I've never seen quite this analysis done. It's super subjective. What was extremely interesting was going through the books of a bankrupt company in my industry. Too many employees. Too many skus. Too much complexity.

Fair enough. Some people advocate for going to trade associations for this kind of knowledge. I found those meetings were all lying done by liars so avoided them.