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The cruise ships confused me a long time too. Then I figured out the median passenger age was 69. SK still confuses me, but I think their government could be lying. Still need more info, though. They might also have a worse strain.
Median age 69 with or without crew? That's an important thing to remember.
Without the crew. I forgot the exact number, but it was like 500 passengers infected, about 2.5% died and they were all the deaths. 2.5% death rate for median age 69 versus in mid-march it looked like 2.5% of the population wide was possible. Now it looks more like .5% or less
I also think the most vulnerable were 1. more likely to get it because they require so much care and thus interact with so many more people and 2. were more likely to die from it. Because of that, I think death % trickles down over time.
Another thought on spreading: so NYC just won't have a second serious wave IMO. Why? Because the population isn't linear. I think it'll be a rough Pareto distribution, which means that 20% of people do 80% of the spreading. It'll spread way slower since that 20% mostly got it
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