Molson Hart

New Yorkers have thought all along that the subway was the covid-19 super spread But with the panic driven lockdown, authorities took a virus that had already spread widely and forced people into more crowded subway cars and buses with limited service. This made it worse-

This MIT paper looks at all the covid data, maps of infection, and subway lines http://web.mit.edu/jeffrey/harris/HarrisJE_WP2_COVID19_NYC_13-Apr-2020.pdf … The longer one was on the subway- and the more stops along the way- the higher the risk of infection For anyone who knows the subway here, that explains why certain areas

Got hit so much worse than others. Commuters from outer Queens and Brooklyn spend far more time, and come into contact with far more stops (more people getting on and off) than those who are taking the subway 3 or 4 stops in Manhattan or from Brooklyn Heights to Wall Street

When you look at the train workers union data, there’s no question that the subways were an awful risk for covid spread. TWU has 3 times the infection rate of the worst hit zip codes in all nyc. Also explains why NYC has a pandemic, and LA has far less of a problem

So New Yorkers like me who spent a lot of time on the subway (for the month of February, was on 4 times a day, 10-15 minutes a ride) were at lesser risk because of shorter rides and fewer stops than those who who were coming in from 45 minutes away 2 times a day from QNs/BK/BX

So once the subway lines had already help spread this disease to 10,000s of NYC residents, the city authorities told everyone to lockdown at home Queens and Brooklyn have a huge number of multigenerational families living under one roof Such Intra-familial spread can be lethal

So how is this fixed? I don’t see how NYC opens up without changing transportation system.

NYC is probably already a good chunk of the way to herd immunity. Masks will help a lot. Probably don't need that much else to finish herd immunity, without overwhelming hospitals.