“What strategy is correct for the coronavirus?” is the wrong question. You can’t answer that before answering: 1) what level of competence/restraint will we see from our federal government? 2) what is an acceptable amount of death of old and senesitive populations?
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At first, I was pretty against the herd immunity strategies, but then I realized: America ain’t got it. Civil liberties that prevent China-like restrictions and our federal govts incompetence make adopting Singapore or Taiwan strategies totally unrealistic.
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Also, I’ve basically been in quarantine for about 2.5 months. I took precautions early because I thought the us numbers were bullshit and I wasn’t sure how bad the disease was going to be. My point is, the longer you are in quarantine, the more tired of it you become.
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The longer we do these restrictions, I suspect, the less people are going to care about the old and sensitive groups and the more they’ll care about the economy and themselves.
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So in summary, there is a clear path to minimizing death, but the US wont pull it off between its laws, govt incompetence, and lack of sympathy for sensitive groups. We will do some half-asses herd immunity thing and the exposed sadly will be in our “thoughts and prayers”.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
reached a similar conclusion myself. our institutions are so broken right now that I don't see us effectively implementing test and trace. Some groups of states may pull it off. Perhaps west coast and the tri state area. But even that feels unlikely.
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Replying to @jonathanwmeier @Molson_Hart
There's a funny element too where the companies capable of building the software that powers test and trace want their names no where near it. ex: google.
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Trump is part of that.
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