82% of the population needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity. That's also impossible.
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Replying to @cowboyInNY @Molson_Hart
It'll happen, even if people haven't realized it yet.
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Replying to @orrdavid @cowboyInNY
It’s not impossible. It’s exactly what is going to happen.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid
20% of the 82% will be hospitalized. Then 1-10% of the 20% will die.
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Replying to @cowboyInNY @Molson_Hart
CFR will end up being maybe .5% or so, that ballpark.
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Replying to @orrdavid @cowboyInNY
Depends on the country and depends on how we do it.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @cowboyInNY
Hopefully we protect older people very well and then it could be as low as ~.2%?
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Replying to @orrdavid @cowboyInNY
Impossible without a vaccine or good treatment, imho.
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Diamond Princess was 1.6% with a mixed pop. 0.2% ain't happening. Not even close.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @cowboyInNY
It depends on how many 70+ year olds we successfully shield. It's tempting to fly back home and make this a mission for a while, it seems so obvious and effective.
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Unless they live by themselves they will get infected. If they live with family members, old folks homes, or hospice, they will get it. Guaranteed. Old folks homes are fucking terrible. Can't make them water tight.
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