Molson Hart

“What strategy is correct for the coronavirus?” is the wrong question. You can’t answer that before answering: 1) what level of competence/restraint will we see from our federal government? 2) what is an acceptable amount of death of old and senesitive populations?

At first, I was pretty against the herd immunity strategies, but then I realized: America ain’t got it. Civil liberties that prevent China-like restrictions and our federal govts incompetence make adopting Singapore or Taiwan strategies totally unrealistic.

82% of the population needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity. That's also impossible.

It'll happen, even if people haven't realized it yet.

It’s not impossible. It’s exactly what is going to happen.

20% of the 82% will be hospitalized. Then 1-10% of the 20% will die.

CFR will end up being maybe .5% or so, that ballpark.