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“What strategy is correct for the coronavirus?” is the wrong question. You can’t answer that before answering: 1) what level of competence/restraint will we see from our federal government? 2) what is an acceptable amount of death of old and senesitive populations?
At first, I was pretty against the herd immunity strategies, but then I realized: America ain’t got it. Civil liberties that prevent China-like restrictions and our federal govts incompetence make adopting Singapore or Taiwan strategies totally unrealistic.
Also, I’ve basically been in quarantine for about 2.5 months. I took precautions early because I thought the us numbers were bullshit and I wasn’t sure how bad the disease was going to be. My point is, the longer you are in quarantine, the more tired of it you become.
The longer we do these restrictions, I suspect, the less people are going to care about the old and sensitive groups and the more they’ll care about the economy and themselves.
So in summary, there is a clear path to minimizing death, but the US wont pull it off between its laws, govt incompetence, and lack of sympathy for sensitive groups. We will do some half-asses herd immunity thing and the exposed sadly will be in our “thoughts and prayers”.
/END P.S. This graph shows clearly how each successive lockdown delays the time to the next lockdown. There are strategies for us to take that can make death reduction tolerable! P.P.S. I'm petulant that this tweet got no likes or retweets hahahttps://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1249140441364209664 …
Feels like momentum is building for this.https://twitter.com/CErcoliCBS2KCAL/status/1251253706676289536 …
82% of the population needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity. That's also impossible.
It'll happen, even if people haven't realized it yet.
When we got new information that Singapore couldn't contain it, is the moment I realized America definitely wouldn't. It's what you're saying: government capabilities and civil liberties. But also that the USA is much bigger.
Singapore fucked Up with the masks and Taiwan and SK seem to be doing a better job but I agree with you. It’s not legal in constitution for us to restrict movement between states as well. Very hard to make this work.
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