I used to really dig following this guy. I read a lot of his blogposts and was awed by a lot of what I read, much of which I didn’t understand. Then I read this. It’s all wrong. And instead of admitting that, he just engaged in hand-waving. I don’t pretend to be a successfulhttps://twitter.com/LT3000Lyall/status/1240139848125734912 …
I scanned the piece. I'm not sure this is the right piece. - It doesn't mention buybacks at all - It doesn't mention Total Return CAPE - It's a comparison of two stocks, one doing dividends, one not. What we're talking about here is two stocks, one doing dividends, one buybacks.
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Look at section 4.1, "Construction of the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio". They don't mention buybacks, but corporate payout policy more broadly. Note how they scale earnings by a total-return adjusted price.pic.twitter.com/rx0N85lIQD
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