Molson Hart

I used to really dig following this guy. I read a lot of his blogposts and was awed by a lot of what I read, much of which I didn’t understand. Then I read this. It’s all wrong. And instead of admitting that, he just engaged in hand-waving. I don’t pretend to be a successfulhttps://twitter.com/LT3000Lyall/status/1240139848125734912 …

I'm not 'admitting' it's wrong because I don't think it is wrong. If I did, I would admit it. I already provided a response to your critique in the subsequent comments. I assume buyback takes place at end of year at at 16/15th of starting price @ 15x earnings.

But that doesn’t make sense when you’re retiring 1 in 15 instead of 1 in 16 shares. In any case, my point about market cap vs total earnings is the meat of my point.

And it's not as if the methodology I decided to use is flawed. Buybacks typically are spread over the year, as are many dividends which are typically paid quarterly in the US. You're primary criticism is my analysis of how buybacks distort CAPE is wrong. I don't see how it is?

It’s the way you used EPS. If you just look at market cap/earnings, then buybacks and dividends give the same CAPE result. With that said @svrnco sent me some paper where shiller said corporate payout policy affects cape so I have to read that before being confident.