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I don't really follow your argument (3). CAPE is calculated as price/10y trailing earnings, so if EPS is increasing over time while P/E remains constant, then CAPE will be inflated. Only way this doesn't apply is if you're arguing that P/E will change in response to buybacks.
I don’t know what 3 is a reference to but my original tweets are clear. What you wrote doesn’t make sense to me. Think of it this way. Cape has a bunch of variables in its calculation: earnings, price, time, inflation. You’re saying EPS is changing. Why? Because # of shares is.
Where is # of shares in that calculation? It’s not there. Therefore it does not affect CAPE.
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