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I used to really dig following this guy. I read a lot of his blogposts and was awed by a lot of what I read, much of which I didn’t understand. Then I read this. It’s all wrong. And instead of admitting that, he just engaged in hand-waving. I don’t pretend to be a successfulhttps://twitter.com/LT3000Lyall/status/1240139848125734912 …
public equities investor, but I’m wise enough to know that one should embrace when they’re wrong. When the facts change so must your mind. Otherwise you get in trouble. Like Munger says: “a year where you don’t kill one of your treasured ideas is a year wasted”.
His main point isn't wrong. Even Shiller acknowledged that buybacks can distort CAPE. He rolled out a modified version called total return CAPE to address the problem.
Got a link? His math is wrong.
PS I use 16/15th to align it with the ex-dividend price at end of year after 1yr of earnings has accumulated. If I did it the way you suggest, I would actually be biasing the results IN FAVOUR of the argument I'm making, not against!
Re: bias in favor, reread what I wrote. Your eps calculations are not right for cape.
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