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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Tobias Carlisle‏Verified account @Greenbackd Mar 17
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      S&P 500 off ~29.53% to yesterday's close. Not many great analogs for this decline over the last 70 years. The speed is more like the late stages of 2008 or 1987 from the high. The CAPE is at 22.5x, with the mean around 16.7x.pic.twitter.com/4kzbmCDs7g

      10 replies 11 retweets 54 likes
    2. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 17
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      Replying to @Greenbackd

      I discuss here how the CAPE can be highly misleading in a world with buybacks. https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2017/02/why-cape-multiple-is-fatally-flawed.html?m=1 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 11
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall @Greenbackd

      I'm not an experienced stock guy, but I think the math here is not right. 1. If you're retiring 1 out of 15 shares every year, EPS would compound at 15/14 - 1 = 7.14% per year 2. You say that the market cap and earnings are the same. Therefore, cape for each should be the same.pic.twitter.com/gvnFC199ND

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 11
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @LT3000Lyall @Greenbackd

      3. The mathematical operation you used to get 19.7x is not equivalent to the mathematical operation used to get 15x. Market Cap(today)/Average(Earnings(1), ..., Earnings(10)) =/= Share Price(today)/Average(EPS(1), ..., EPS(10)) Because the # of shares in each year changes.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 11
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @LT3000Lyall @Greenbackd

      CAPE is not fatally flawed, but I do think that using it across eras with different tax regimes is difficult. CAPEs should be higher after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, for example, as it lowered the tax rate on C corp earnings.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 14
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @LT3000Lyall @Greenbackd

      No response on this?

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Apr 14
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @Greenbackd

      Not much to add other than what is in the article. The impact of buybacks being favoured over dividends is not factored into CAPE multiples, for reasons I discuss in my article. On taxes, ppl would argue pre-tax margins adjust over time to maintain constant ROICs.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 14
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall @Greenbackd

      That doesn’t make sense. That view relies on math errors in the article. Separately, if pretax margins improve to maintain constant ROICs then I’m right that it increases CAPE because price remains constant while earnings drop.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Apr 14
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @Greenbackd

      There are no math errors in the article. With no variance in operating earnings, buybacks increase EPS. Dividends do not. CAPE uses 7-yr average inflation-adjusted EPS, so CAPE will be higher under buyback scenario. On latter para, no because CAPE uses post-tax EPS.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 14
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall @Greenbackd

      I can’t believe you’re doing this. There are obvious math errors. Earnings/shares = EPS. Retiring 1 in 15 share is like multiplying shares by 14/15. Therefore EPS after retiring is 15/14*EPS = 1.071*EPS. You’re article says 1.067 coming from 1+1/15 which is wrong.

      9:31 PM - 14 Apr 2020
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      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 14
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @LT3000Lyall @Greenbackd

          Also your method of cape calculation is all wrong. And everything you’ve said since is just an obfuscation of this.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        2. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Apr 14
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @Greenbackd

          I'm done commenting on this. I'm not obfuscating anything - my methodology as outlined in the blog post could not be more transparent.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          3. End of conversation
        2. New conversation
        1. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Apr 14
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @Greenbackd

          Ps no because as I noted in the article, I assumed the buyback happened at the END of the year (same time dividend would be paid) AFTER the earnings have been earned that can finance the buyback/dividend. So the price of buyback was 16/15th of T=0 starting point.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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