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The arguments for and against the bailout: 1) the pandemic could not have been foreseen, therefore it is only fair to support pre-pandemic prices. This makes no sense. By that logic, the bailout also could not have been foreseen and thus it is only fair to support the shorts.https://twitter.com/BChappatta/status/1250156739573538818 …
2) It is not actually the pandemic that is causing airlines to stop revenue, but government. “Free markets” does not mean letting airlines fail. It means not preventing travel to begin with. I think this makes a lot of sense, however I don’t think gov’t bailouts are necessarily
the proper solution. We have a legal system. Perhaps it would have been better if we had let airlines sue the government for compensation after the fact. 3) Creation of moral hazard. I worry a lot about how people will act if the bailout is successful. With it, government is
saying: no matter what’s around the bend we will print money until it’s fixed. That doesn’t seem long-term healthy. Yes, it’s good to avoid disruption but at what long term cost to our system?
Strong counterpoint to theory 2. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1250740323120230405?s=21 …https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1250740323120230405 …
But we know the pandemic was #CompletelyForeseeable. Only the specific timing was in doubt. https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/03/health/gallery/seven-reasons-global-pandemic-risk-virus-bacteria/index.html …
Yet governments and companies disregarded this risk, as it required some moderate preparation.
If you were a mom and pop small business and had a year to prepare I still think it would’ve been impossible though right? So perhaps a better way to phrase would be: foreseeable but insoluble should it occur for many
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