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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. John_Hempton‏Verified account @John_Hempton Apr 12
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      Why not stagflation? The 1960s were a sign of endless trust in Keynesian expansion to the extent that Milton Friedman could say of Richard Nixon "everyone is a Keynesian now". The 2010s are a sign of endless monetary expansion until everyone trusted the Greenspan put. 1/2

      18 replies 11 retweets 101 likes
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    2. John_Hempton‏Verified account @John_Hempton Apr 12
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      Last time it ended in inflation plus rising interest rates. The returns to cash were still lousy (most the time inflation galloped ahead of interest rates). Negative returns were baked in. Why not this time? Serious question from a non-macroeconomist. 2/2

      48 replies 2 retweets 61 likes
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    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 13
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      Replying to @John_Hempton

      Starting in 2002, we had 1.4 billion Chinese people join the WTO. This dropped the cost of goods way down. Perhaps, were it not for that, we would've had massive in inflation in the US.

      1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 13
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @John_Hempton

      I'm not a big fan of the way the feds count inflation. It seems like whenever any one part of the CPI basket gets too expensive, they underweight it in favor of something else which has gotten cheaper

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha Apr 13
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @John_Hempton

      Super anecdotal but watching 90s sitcoms helps with understanding this intuitively. A dinner date in NYC costs $100 30 years ago? I guess there really was no inflation. Wait you paid $800 for a 2 bedroom in Manhattan? Give me a fucking break.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 13
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      Replying to @gsvigruha @John_Hempton

      And that's rent. Look at the purchase price of the 2 bedroom and it is really eye-watering. You've seen the famous inflation graph that breaks down different product types right?

      8:40 AM - 13 Apr 2020
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        1. New conversation
        1. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha Apr 13
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @John_Hempton

          Great point re: rent vs purchase. Yeah i saw at least some versions of it (computers became practically free, but healthcare/education not so much).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Apr 13
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          Replying to @gsvigruha @John_Hempton

          An explanation of inflation over the past 20 years: Purple: government interference Turquoise: no outsourcing or other productivity gains Green: partially outsourced (cars have tariffs) Yellow: outsourcing Red: productivity gains (software and technology)pic.twitter.com/Ej17CCQw0L

          0 replies 2 retweets 1 like
          3. End of conversation

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