Molson Hart

I think right now we need a stricter national lockdown (the semi-strict lockdown hurts the economy almost as much as a stricter one, and gives not much more joy so we might as well just shift to a stricter one that kill the virus faster), but after that we can switch to one for

At first the thesis was to flatten the curve, which I agreed with. Hammering down our economy every 2 months to try containment is not that. In the last 3 weeks 15 million people were put out of work. That will keep going up. This kills far more people than the virus, imo.

After the first lockdown they don’t have to be national if you test competently.

I was a lot more optimistic about that until Singapore had to lock down again; they couldn't figure out where new cases were coming from. Similarly Japan isn't controlling this either, though they're very dense. I think people will realize containment isn't an option soon.

Singapore afaict was not be strict enough with testing. They were just doing contact tracing well. I think my pinned tweet is not that bad for the economy. The problem is that it requires competence that the USA does not seem to have.

That's part of it. I do think Singapore itself *might* be able to contain it if they keep borders closed for 18 months. But the fact that they failed the first time speaks volumes of what's going to happen elsewhere. If I thought it could be contained, I like your plan.

But they didn’t contain. They just contact traced. You need to do the testing thing that China was doing.

My impression is they thought they had it contained, but then had outbreaks they couldn't account for. Constant mass testing might work, too, if it can be organized. That's still a hope. But what Sweden is doing seems to be working well, with very few new ICU cases/day.