I think right now we need a stricter national lockdown (the semi-strict lockdown hurts the economy almost as much as a stricter one, and gives not much more joy so we might as well just shift to a stricter one that kill the virus faster), but after that we can switch to one for
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
At first the thesis was to flatten the curve, which I agreed with. Hammering down our economy every 2 months to try containment is not that. In the last 3 weeks 15 million people were put out of work. That will keep going up. This kills far more people than the virus, imo.
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Replying to @orrdavid
After the first lockdown they don’t have to be national if you test competently.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I was a lot more optimistic about that until Singapore had to lock down again; they couldn't figure out where new cases were coming from. Similarly Japan isn't controlling this either, though they're very dense. I think people will realize containment isn't an option soon.
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Replying to @orrdavid
Singapore afaict was not be strict enough with testing. They were just doing contact tracing well. I think my pinned tweet is not that bad for the economy. The problem is that it requires competence that the USA does not seem to have.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
That's part of it. I do think Singapore itself *might* be able to contain it if they keep borders closed for 18 months. But the fact that they failed the first time speaks volumes of what's going to happen elsewhere. If I thought it could be contained, I like your plan.
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Replying to @orrdavid
But they didn’t contain. They just contact traced. You need to do the testing thing that China was doing.
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Basically you need to have checkpoints everywhere looking for people who are positive that exist outside your contact tracing network. And then you need to isolate them and contacts after you find them. Singapore was not doing that afaik.
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