Molson Hart

4/ Without the Euro, Germany's highly successful economy would have increased the value of the local currency, making its goods expensive, hurting its exports.

5/ Instead, in a monetary union, "the German Euro — the currency — then has its value suppressed via contamination with all the other (poorer-performing, non-Exporting) European nations". "German goods look cheaper than they would otherwise look without the Euro."

6/ "The Euro & the Single Market make it possible for Germany to pursue a strategy of Export-driven Wealth-creation that would be considered impossible in any other Western, high-GDP, high-population, high-wage-paying nation"

7/ Who benefited? Germany, of course. But also the "European nations that have found a way to support the German Productivity Engine have built a symbiotic relationship that strengthens their union", such as Italy. Who lost? Whose who didn't.

8/ Back to the pandemic. In the scenario that some US states or EU countries become long-term red zones (or have a huge number of internal red-zones), these states & countries will have trouble participating to the economy of the most productive states.

9/ These red-zone states would then find themselves hurt even more by a common monetary union. Whereas those green-zone states would benefit (as long as they do not have to send too much financial help to the red-zone ones).

10/ What to expect then? In the hypothesis of medium-long-term red zones: - Red-zone states will attempt to break monetary unions, to gain competitiveness. - Green-zone ones will do whatever they can to keep it, to keep their goods low-cost for foreign importers.

11/ Interestingly, this is opposite to what will happen on the issue of borders: - Green zone states will do whatever they can to keep strong borders, to keep the virus out.