Molson Hart

I'm going to get a lot of hate when I write that piece about the data on COVID-19 from China, but now more than ever I see that it has to be done

Spoilers? What's the take on the crematoria/urns theories?

Lol this is total garbage. The one argument I find intriguing right now is that the data are not noisy enough, but so far all the people I've seen making this argument either didn't even try to do it even a little bit rigorously or they didn't try to do a similar analysis on the

data from other countries to show that you could fit them with a simple model as neatly as the Chinese data. But without such a comparison, they haven't shown anything, so I'm suspending my judgment for now on this.

See this thread. I think the Chinese numbers are bullshit so it sounds like we’re on opposing sides. https://twitter.com/molson_hart/status/1244633164074692615?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1244633164074692615 …

That's because you are innumerate. It's exponential growth from a single number and not exponential growth from a percentage. The time it takes to reach 10000 from a base pop of 1 million is no different than 1 billion. The percentage of total pop infected will be different.

The 2nd issue is that the initial infection will grow faster in Italy than in China. Being at ground zero, Wuhan could only grow naturally. For Italy, patient zero could be augmented by patient 2 and 3 from China, patient 4 from Germany, patient 5 from Spain.

Like the New York outbreak which blew up, the seeding wasn't one asymptomatic farmer from but probably hundreds coming in from Europe that went untested which is why it went super exponential.