I'm going to get a lot of hate when I write that piece about the data on COVID-19 from China, but now more than ever I see that it has to be done 
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data from other countries to show that you could fit them with a simple model as neatly as the Chinese data. But without such a comparison, they haven't shown anything, so I'm suspending my judgment for now on this.
See this thread. I think the Chinese numbers are bullshit so it sounds like we’re on opposing sides. https://twitter.com/molson_hart/status/1244633164074692615?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1244633164074692615 …
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Thanks. I will read this later when I start preparing the piece more actively. Right now I'm working on a short blog post on another issue. (Well, still about COVID-19, but not on the question of whether China faked its data.)
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good luck (break a leg?)
This was mine:https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1244482128257179648 …
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That's because you are innumerate. It's exponential growth from a single number and not exponential growth from a percentage. The time it takes to reach 10000 from a base pop of 1 million is no different than 1 billion. The percentage of total pop infected will be different.
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The 2nd issue is that the initial infection will grow faster in Italy than in China. Being at ground zero, Wuhan could only grow naturally. For Italy, patient zero could be augmented by patient 2 and 3 from China, patient 4 from Germany, patient 5 from Spain.
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