No one’s counts are accurate for actual number of cases because no one’s done population wide epidemic survey yet. That’s why we look at ratios, because they give us idea of whether sampling is biasing up or down. If you’re deliberately fudging numbers makes no sense to bias up.
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Replying to @gonglei89 @KaiserKuo
Actually, Iceland has come very close. They have tested more than any other country on a per capita basis (~3.5% of population). They have 1086 cases and a population of 375,000, which would put a China equivalent number at a little more than 4 million. 3.5% is enough.pic.twitter.com/DnzNgEQZLD
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @KaiserKuo
Not every country is going to have the same proportion of spread relative to a population. It depends on how early they detect clusters and how rigorously they exercise containment measures.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @gonglei89 @KaiserKuo
Correct, but in the context of all the video evidence of bodies, people being welded into their homes, massive sprays, nationwide shutdowns, it's pretty obvious that the problem got worse in China than Iceland so far.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @KaiserKuo
Or, it’s obvious that China took the idea of trying to contain this thing a lot more seriously than other countries, so all the scary harsh measures people sensationalized outside of China actually worked to keep the spread of infection down?
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Replying to @gonglei89 @KaiserKuo
Yeah maybe all those yellow body bags are just the new fashionable duffel bag! Maybe the reports of crematoriums running continuously were just guys doing some carnivorous barbecue or something. Maybe China has cured the virus and that's why they have no new cases despite having
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @KaiserKuo
Maybe you shouldn’t form totalizing impressions from singular anecdotes.
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Replying to @gonglei89 @KaiserKuo
They're not singular and the plural of anecdote is data.
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Actually at least for the crematorium news, seems to be singular. You can Google and see that basically all the results are attributed to one individual / source (& its affiliates). Feel free to then Google the source.
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Even if there was no crematorium evidence, it’s mathematically impossible for them to have so few new cases. 1.4 billion people, big outbreak, 15 countries bordering, and intl travel = 0 cases? Unbelievable. We all know; Look at actions not numbers. They are still locking down.
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Am I saying they’re hiding a massive widespread outbreak and burning millions of bodies every week? No. But they’re lying about the numbers.
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