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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Hudson‏ @HCashny Mar 29
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      Iceland mass testing-> estimates 1% COVID+ and 0.25% CFR. Cruise ship data yields similar results. Are these results applicable to wider world?

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 29
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      Replying to @HCashny

      Cruise ship is different from Iceland. Cfr higher than Iceland by a lot. No they are not applicable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Hudson‏ @HCashny Mar 30
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Ship pop skewed old &largest age group 70-80, some of whom wld be expected to die in this time regardless. Count of infected also underestimated missing people who may have already fought it off (part of IFR). Ship IFR prob < 0.5%https://www.nicholaslewis.org/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 30
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      Replying to @HCashny

      I have a long thread on this. Search diamond princess @Molson_Hart

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    5. Hudson‏ @HCashny Mar 30
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      I think the link attached is more recent and more thorough. IFR is better than CFR. But, even CFR should be adjusted for avg age as well as probability of death sans Corona (not trivial when dealing w 70+/unhealthy). Also all deaths w comorbidities not necessarily caused by COVID

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    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 30
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      Replying to @HCashny

      So basically there is no CFR for the coronavirus. There is a CFR for your age group. And then, really, there is a CFR for your age group + comorbidities. In any case, this study is not saying 0.25%. It's saying, AFAICT, higher than that. Further, people on that boat may still die

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 30
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @HCashny

      , which would raise the CFR.

      7:14 AM - 30 Mar 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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