Molson Hart

5. They also won't be able to lock down the country has so it'll spread like wildfire. India, Indonesia, Cambodia, all of Africa, parts of South America are like this. The other big determinant of speed of transmission will be density. Dense countries get to full infection faster

6. We're going to be hearing about the coronavirus for a long time. It takes time for one person to infect others and then once infections in an area or country reach critical mass the area will be shut down which will slow transmission, but likely not enough to contain it.

7. In a weird way, I could see chickenpox-like parties for kids. People are going to go crazy over the next year as this plays out. People may just try to get it because they're so sick of being stuck inside.

8. No one wants to see people die, so if you're government and I'm right that the virus at this point can't be contained, it's all about delaying it until a vaccine can be developed and then reach big production.

9. Coronavirus will massively shift people towards working at home. All but essential services and package delivery will switch to work at home. This may create resentment amongst those who are forced to take risks for those get to stay at home. It aligns with class-conflict.

10. Okay I'm spent. My main takeaway is, notwithstanding the specter of death of ourselves and relatives, we are going to get sooooo sick of hearing about this soon. It's a unique time in history. We have a pandemic, but we can slow it down because of communications technology.

Let's look at how I could be wrong: A. Fast vaccine creation (doubt it) B. A cocktail of current drugs work C. Asian people are materially more susceptible (the bioweapon to make China's population younger thesis)

D. I'm extrapolating from super spreaders. The British guy open-mouth coughed everywhere and hugged everyone. Seems unlikely based on Singapore tracing E. China has no idea how to treat people. Well, if that's true, how are Indonesia and India going to handle this?