When you list out all the existential threats to humanity, our Netflix-driven "live life for now" modern ethos seems comical. The most powerful economic nation really needs to start thinking about the future.
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Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
It’s not average age that matters. It’s the percent of population over 60 that will really determines death rates in a state. Florida is in trouble. https://twitter.com/molson_hart/status/1244269289927999488?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1244269289927999488 …
Molson Hart added,
Molson Hart @Molson_HartReplying to @mgirdley @DailyPamphletState A is 40% 80 yo and 60% 30 yo has an average age of 50. State B is 100% age 55 has an older average. If mortality rate is 10% for 80 yo, 2% for 55 yo, 0.1% for 30 yo, State A loses 4.6% of its population while state B loses 2% despite having a higher average age.2 replies 0 retweets 1 likeShow this thread -
Replying to @Molson_Hart
I think the determining factor for how f* a state is will be the ratio "60y+ population" / "beds with ventilator" The mortality rate will explode once every bed is occupied, and hospitals are operating at 150% capacity. A critical mass of sick patients will have rippling effects
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Replying to @bjonathan
Yes, simplest best regression for predicted mortality. Maybe add obesity in there and it’s even better.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Yes, you are right "How many people for 100 residents of X are likely to suffer complications" / "beds with ventilator"
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @bjonathan
I read that smoking is protective btw haha
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
It's scary how every country, state, city feel immune until it's too late. How many States still have bars/restaurants open?
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Replying to @bjonathan
Hmmm at this point probably a lot. Churches are a Big problem here too.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
The worst county in France is because of an Evangelist meetup...
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