Molson Hart

I'm pretty blown away right now. I see videos of people on subways in NYC and that city is not taking nearly the precautions they need to. NYC might, real talk, be worse than Wuhan soon.

Assuming the virus does not cause recurring infection or mutate regularly like the flu, a country which reaches herd immunity first has a huge advantage in war. Medical supply chain is another wartime advantage. Coronavirus will be a catalyst for invasion or revolution somewhere.

After this crisis passes we will at least pay lip service to revamping our medical supply chain. We'll probably do something very incompetently. But as a nation we won't think generally about the next risk. What are the other existential threats to humanity that we are ignoring?

- Asteroid - Solar volatility - Nuclear war - Nuclear terrorism - Bioweapons - Volcanic winter - Supervolcanos (i.e. Yellowstone) - China's rare-earth near-monopoly - Climate change - Hyperinflation - Prion pandemics - AI - Aliens - Cosmic rays

When you list out all the existential threats to humanity, our Netflix-driven "live life for now" modern ethos seems comical. The most powerful economic nation really needs to start thinking about the future.

It’s not average age that matters. It’s the percent of population over 60 that will really determines death rates in a state. Florida is in trouble. https://twitter.com/molson_hart/status/1244269289927999488?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1244269289927999488 …

I think the determining factor for how f* a state is will be the ratio "60y+ population" / "beds with ventilator" The mortality rate will explode once every bed is occupied, and hospitals are operating at 150% capacity. A critical mass of sick patients will have rippling effects