Based on talks w/ friends & contacts in multifam: - tenants struggling to pay - lenders mostly being flexible/reasonable - debt still available for deals My view: There will be pockets of distress, but no wipeout in multifamily, so long as govt stimulates broader economy.
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Replying to @moseskagan
Almost every other form of real estate is under MUCH GREATER threat. Multifamily ought to be a relative bright spot, no?
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Yeah, industrial is probably in great shape. Credit office and (most) credit retail probably ok too.
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Replying to @moseskagan
I don't know what credit office and credit retail is? Is that like class A? Office and retail look very bad to me...very very bad.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
"Credit" means leased to companies with investment grade credit. So, they're paying unless they go BK.
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Replying to @moseskagan
Word makes sense. If you've got a leased building on a long-term lease to a good tenant you should be good. Still though...I wouldn't want to own that stuff (generally) if given the choice between that and other RE classes.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I agree. Think hotels, retail, office should probably be owned with little or no leverage by families that intend to own forever.
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Replying to @moseskagan
Hard to group those up. Agree generally that leverage on multi-family is much safer than on other assets. - Hotels are here to stay, all types, even in view of Airbnb disruption. - Retail is bifurcated into class A/walkable and everything else (RIP) - Office is similar to retail
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
All have highly variable cashflows (hotel bc rates change, others bc can easily go months with no tenant). Fine with no leverage; potential disaster with even 60-65% LTV if owner isn't really strong.
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Replying to @moseskagan @Molson_Hart
Think the prices for those assets didn't accurately reflect the risk. No WAY should hotels have traded at anything like multifam cap rates... And they did
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