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I think they're both right. I think this is deeper for longer than the bulls think. The recovery then ramps slower, than expected. But I think a depression outcome seems like a low probability given govt action, so we come out of this in good shape around this time next year.
I could see a depression if we are unable to get a vaccine or have a good treatment. Depression is just a prolonged recession, perhaps a bit more severe. Fiscal stimulus can’t stimulate people to travel if travelling means spreading a deadly virus, for example.
