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There's a wonderful Charlie Mungerism that is very relevant to Twitter and #COVID19.
The more you say something, the more you are hammering it into your own head.
During this pandemic, you can definitely see that before your own eyes.
The covid-bears stay bearish. The covid-bulls stay bullish. You need to really work to see the other side's perspective and doing that is absolutely essential to staying rational. It is very difficult.
Are the bears or bulls predicting more deaths? I’ve been very optimistic and I think you are on the other side.
Bears. Yeah I am on the other side but I am super focused on making sure I change my mind when the facts change.
I think they're both right. I think this is deeper for longer than the bulls think. The recovery then ramps slower, than expected. But I think a depression outcome seems like a low probability given govt action, so we come out of this in good shape around this time next year.
I could see a depression if we are unable to get a vaccine or have a good treatment. Depression is just a prolonged recession, perhaps a bit more severe. Fiscal stimulus can’t stimulate people to travel if travelling means spreading a deadly virus, for example.
yes- very wide range of possible outcomes
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