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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/08/homeownership-by-age.html … Looks like the homeownership rate among young people went from around 40 to around 35 over the last third of a century? That's supposed to prove some massive unaffordability crisis?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 19
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      Replying to @avi_eisen

      Look at real housing prices avi. Worth mentioning how many fewer kids people are having to afford those homes.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      I never said housing inflation wasn't high. But overall affordability is measured by the average, which is inflation. If anything, measured inflation overestimates inflation because it doesn't account enough for increased quality. 1/x

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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      Replying to @avi_eisen @Molson_Hart

      People have fewer kids as they get richer. Very clear pattern. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility … 2/x

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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      Replying to @avi_eisen @Molson_Hart

      If your wages go up by 3% and inflation is 2%, you have 1% more real spending power, full stop. Inflation is an average of all spending categories - if housing went up 5%, others must have gone down in similar proportions to keep the average at 2. 3/x

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 19
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      Replying to @avi_eisen

      That’s not exactly right. CPI is determined by a basket of goods selected by the federal reserve which they weight and swap out as they see fit.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      It is exactly right. CPI is an attempt to measure inflation, which as I said earlier is not completely accurate - it likely overestimates. See https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-are-richer-than-we-think-11566428343 …, or going back a couple yearshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-underestimates-growth-1431989720 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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      Replying to @avi_eisen @Molson_Hart

      It certainly would explain a lot about interest rates. If you believe inflation is significantly above CPI, then real interest rates are far below zero and have been for a while. That's implausible.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 19
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      Replying to @avi_eisen

      I do. Why? See Japan

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Japan has had positive interest rates except for a year or two recently. What is your point?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 19
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      Replying to @avi_eisen

      You said negative interest rates are implausible and I gave you a real world example (no pun intended).

      6:32 PM - 19 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart

          negative real interest rates for extended periods of time. Didn't happen in Japan.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Avraham Eisenberg‏ @avi_eisen Mar 19
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          Replying to @avi_eisen @Molson_Hart

          https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FR.INR.RINR?locations=JP … I'm looking at this. Should I be looking elsewhere?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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