Overall inflation is lower than wage growth, which means all of those things you mention are overall *more* affordable than in the past. What experience is telling you otherwise?
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Replying to @avi_eisen
Tell that to the middle class. What experience? Who from your and my cohort can afford a home?
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/08/homeownership-by-age.html … Looks like the homeownership rate among young people went from around 40 to around 35 over the last third of a century? That's supposed to prove some massive unaffordability crisis?
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Replying to @avi_eisen
Look at real housing prices avi. Worth mentioning how many fewer kids people are having to afford those homes.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I never said housing inflation wasn't high. But overall affordability is measured by the average, which is inflation. If anything, measured inflation overestimates inflation because it doesn't account enough for increased quality. 1/x
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Replying to @avi_eisen @Molson_Hart
People have fewer kids as they get richer. Very clear pattern. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility … 2/x
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Replying to @avi_eisen @Molson_Hart
If your wages go up by 3% and inflation is 2%, you have 1% more real spending power, full stop. Inflation is an average of all spending categories - if housing went up 5%, others must have gone down in similar proportions to keep the average at 2. 3/x
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Replying to @avi_eisen
That’s not exactly right. CPI is determined by a basket of goods selected by the federal reserve which they weight and swap out as they see fit.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
It is exactly right. CPI is an attempt to measure inflation, which as I said earlier is not completely accurate - it likely overestimates. See https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-are-richer-than-we-think-11566428343 …, or going back a couple yearshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-underestimates-growth-1431989720 …
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Replying to @avi_eisen @Molson_Hart
It certainly would explain a lot about interest rates. If you believe inflation is significantly above CPI, then real interest rates are far below zero and have been for a while. That's implausible.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Japan has had positive interest rates except for a year or two recently. What is your point?
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Replying to @avi_eisen
You said negative interest rates are implausible and I gave you a real world example (no pun intended).
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