New from The LT3000 Blog: Coronapocalypse - some thoughts. Comments & criticisms welcome. LT3000 https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronapocalypse-some-thoughts.html …
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Agree with your main thesis that there's a two part question here: 1. What is severity (we have some data on that in China, 10-20% fall in GDP iirc) 2. What is duration Why do you think it'll be short?pic.twitter.com/GONmkqhjMZ
IMHO, it will be long. Containment works, but when you loosen restrictions, as is needed to not have an economic catastrophe in parts of our economy, the virus comes back if you don't have herd immunity and we won't for some time. Therefore, on-off social distancing/demand shock.
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Yes but u will have bought time to produce antivirals and other treatments to mitigate symptoms, reducing death rates.
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Yes true, but whether or not that will happen is unknowable. I’m not sure I’d call the current correction panic. Equity holders in many industries are likely to be wiped out. Correction, especially in the context of where valuations were, seems reasonable.
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