New from The LT3000 Blog: Coronapocalypse - some thoughts. Comments & criticisms welcome. LT3000 https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronapocalypse-some-thoughts.html …
Agree with your main thesis that there's a two part question here: 1. What is severity (we have some data on that in China, 10-20% fall in GDP iirc) 2. What is duration Why do you think it'll be short?pic.twitter.com/GONmkqhjMZ
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IMHO, it will be long. Containment works, but when you loosen restrictions, as is needed to not have an economic catastrophe in parts of our economy, the virus comes back if you don't have herd immunity and we won't for some time. Therefore, on-off social distancing/demand shock.
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Yes but u will have bought time to produce antivirals and other treatments to mitigate symptoms, reducing death rates.
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If we are all barricaded in our houses for 2 weeks, R0 falls off a cliff. Without tranmission the virus dies/disappears. Im not that optimistic & 2nd waves a possible but i do think cases could well start dropping a few weeks and panic will subside.
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So fair to say you think Italy will flat line in terms of new cases in a week or so?
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My guess for timing is a couple tough months, a few quarters until we find a better solution.
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When the vix has reached 80 historically and the mkt has fallen over 30%, it has taken over 5 yrs to regain those levels fyi. Maybe those were more deflationary shocks, and thisnwill end up being very inflationary, but i would just assume demand snaps back in travel/leisure.
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