My prediction: The epidemic hits in a month or two and there are massive casualties but nowhere near enough to give herd immunity if things stop being shut down. Everything stays locked down until a year from now when there's a vaccine which works reliably \
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Replying to @bramcohen
I've read that no chance that we get a vaccine in a year
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I'm being a bit optimistic on that part, but a lot of resources are being thrown at it and it is a universally recognized emergency situation.
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Replying to @bramcohen
The Joe Rogan/Osterholm interview goes into it. Basically, we could have a vaccine tomorrow, but it takes a lot of time to know whether or not it works and is safe. Some vaccines seem to work...and then they kill you. It's not just a question of expediting regulatory processes.
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On the other hand, we can have experimental antivirals way faster because for the very sick, taking experimental drugs is all upside with minimal downside (likely to not get without them).
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