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My prediction: The epidemic hits in a month or two and there are massive casualties but nowhere near enough to give herd immunity if things stop being shut down. Everything stays locked down until a year from now when there's a vaccine which works reliably \
I'm being a bit optimistic on that part, but a lot of resources are being thrown at it and it is a universally recognized emergency situation.
The Joe Rogan/Osterholm interview goes into it. Basically, we could have a vaccine tomorrow, but it takes a lot of time to know whether or not it works and is safe. Some vaccines seem to work...and then they kill you. It's not just a question of expediting regulatory processes.
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