@molson_hart Apologies for those who get to see this for nth time...had to throw it on my predictions thread.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1237533313213972482 …
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You can believe that China has turned around a terrible situation, perhaps reaching a (temporary) steady-state, but the idea that China only had 33 cases on March 11th is comedy. Too many people going in and out. Too many in general. Social distancing works, but not perfectly.pic.twitter.com/amC14MubXP
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Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
https://twitter.com/molson_hart/status/1235380709428260864?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1235380709428260864 …
Molson Hart added,
Molson Hart @Molson_HartWhat if Wuhan were in Missouri? How#COVID19 might look different in the United States than China: - The US has a less compliant population (more resistant to quarantine measures) - Higher potential for riots/looting - More people in poor health - More transparent governmentShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 0 likesShow this thread -
Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
5 deaths in the philippines, infections in Singapore chugging along, lots of cases in Bahrain, Egypt, and KSA "Warm-weather will fix it" hypothesis gets weaker and weaker.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1236344074459918339 …
Molson Hart added,
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Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
Will humidity? Probably not. Path to containment is social distancing. We've seen so in China and South Korea. Everything else is probably magical thinking.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1237614708930367489 …
Molson Hart added,
Molson Hart @Molson_HartReplying to @crissman @navalIMHO, bad share Naval. 1. Saying humidity kills viruses is like saying breathing air kills animals when your only samples are fish 2. From what I’ve read SARS’ decline coincided with the changing of the seasons but it doesn’t mean that was causal.1 reply 0 retweets 3 likesShow this thread -
Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
I'm going on the world's most stable limb and saying that the UK will reverse this "herd immunity" strategy shortly.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1238537513242955779 …
Molson Hart added,
Molson Hart @Molson_HartThis is stupid. Here's why: 1. We don't know the mortality rate 2. We don't know if our immunity is persistent after surviving the virus 3.#COVID19 infects through inhalation of infected air (ex: Diamond Princess), not handshakes 4. Asymptomatic/mild cases won't self-isolate pic.twitter.com/t8dwBmQySC3 replies 0 retweets 2 likesShow this thread -
Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
7 deaths, 693 passengers, 1% death rate for (generally older) cruise ship passengers. Could get higher. Updates are few and far between now.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1234686714318213126 …
Molson Hart added,
Molson Hart @Molson_HartBest estimate of#COVID19 death rate: As of March 2nd, 706 Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers have tested positive, 380 without symptoms. 6 have died. 36 are in critical condition. There were 3700 passengers total, 3,063 were tested as of Feb 20. 6/706 = 0.8% CFR pic.twitter.com/s6XMU6m07JShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 1 likeShow this thread -
Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
The original prediction! I overestimated the economic impact. China has done quite the job to restart their economy so far...https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1225236200744681473 …
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Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
How do you save the cruise, airplane travel, and restaurant industries?https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1238684942957191168 …
Molson Hart added,
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Hotels, theaters, casinos, what are some others, too?
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Replying to @orrdavid
Look at the red bubble on my graph. Forgot about casinos.
10:02 AM - 14 Mar 2020
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