This is my take on the economic effects of covid19. Why is it wrong? Let's tear this thing apart.pic.twitter.com/GEgE808jU0
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Have you looked at travel/spending habits post-9/11? Different thing but not crazy different, huge demand shock and general citizen retreat.
Second, this isn’t right. Consumption will change drastically in the short-term, but people will adjust by substituting. If there was one hole I’d poke in this mind map, it’s that.Yeah I did a little bit actually. Big demand shock but short lived. According to air execs corona has been wayyyy worse on bookings. To make 9/11 like corona, every time a terrorist attack occurrd instead of people of being horrified they would become terrorists.
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Sounds about right, I give it 6 weeks until the articles on high rollers start getting published, all having the trip of a lifetime w/ pampering and discounts. Then FOMO hits and we see behaviour changes once again. Pre-2020 levels will take years, unfortunately.
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^^not an optimistic prediction for GDP, just that there will be maybe 40% of activity and by summer, 70% or something.
End of conversation
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