Molson Hart

I think this bad boy is nothing like the GFC. GFC was a liquidity crisis caused by entities thinking they had more money than they really did plus a demand shock (oil prices got too high). Liquidity crisis could evolve into a demand shock (firings), but covid19 is farther-reach..

..ing and larger than the GFC in its demand shock. Also it's likely, imho, to last longer. Further, gov't can solve liquidity problems. Time cures a virus. This is the time when QE/printing money etc. won't work. But, I am open to disagreement!

1) The healthcare system maxes out at ~1/1000 infected (assuming 15% hospitalization) for OECD countries. If you reach this level, you get locked down. So you can't let the virus run.

3) Solution 1. Hope mass testing works like it does in Korea and do a massive international coordination of mass testing in OECD countries while limiting travel between OECD and non-OECD. Snuff the virus out by June

Clever, I had not thought of that. Kind of like a coalition or trading bloc between certain countries. How do you stop liars? And there are so many. Also, even if Singapore-level contact tracing, people escape the net and spread.

You can't. But you will always have solid data. If 1/15 end up hospitalized you'll know when the virus is gone if you're testing everyone with hospital symptoms...

Small out breaks get caught quickly assuming 15% hospitalization in 3rd week and R0=2. From Patient 0 (the liar) around 30-50 infected at time of first hospitalization. With mass testing there's good probability it's sooner than that if people get tested for mild symptoms.

I think your solution is the best solution we could ever have and we agree that there will be many starts and stops (local quarantines), but I'm skeptical that the USA can pull this off and eradicate by June. - Local governments of various competence - Liars - Illegals - Errors