This is my take on the economic effects of covid19. Why is it wrong? Let's tear this thing apart.pic.twitter.com/GEgE808jU0
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I think you might be underestimating supply shocks.
At the beginning I thought I'd see big supply shocks, but now I think that was wrong. Manufacturing, work from home, and construction can continue with precautions. What are you thinking?
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Renault just shut factories in Spain due to lack of parts. Factory workers have been going on strike due to virus in Japan, Italy, SK, Australia, US, Vietnam.. Backlog of many essential basic materials from China: Electronic parts. Textiles. Pharmaceutical ingredients..
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China figured out how to come back online. The stops are temporary. You can operate almost all factories with social distancing measures. AFAIK the car companies in SK and Japan that stopped because of Chinese part shortages came back online. My factories did.
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