This is my take on the economic effects of covid19. Why is it wrong? Let's tear this thing apart.pic.twitter.com/GEgE808jU0
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I think this bad boy is nothing like the GFC. GFC was a liquidity crisis caused by entities thinking they had more money than they really did plus a demand shock (oil prices got too high). Liquidity crisis could evolve into a demand shock (firings), but covid19 is farther-reach..
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..ing and larger than the GFC in its demand shock. Also it's likely, imho, to last longer. Further, gov't can solve liquidity problems. Time cures a virus. This is the time when QE/printing money etc. won't work. But, I am open to disagreement!
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If we don't get a vaccine or a treatment, we could see a really weird depression where you get a massive amount of money printing layered onto a jobless despondent public, spending their $1200 checks on $12 netflix, depressed that the world can't make a vaccine or treatment.
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I haven't been keeping up with the latest stimulus bills, but I think the best way out of this is to spend the money on revamping our healthcare and supply chain. That's real shit that puts people to work, and, y'know, addresses the root cause of the 100,000s who will die.
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I keep hearing rumors that they're going to make me healthcare czar, but I never get the call.
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1) The healthcare system maxes out at ~1/1000 infected (assuming 15% hospitalization) for OECD countries. If you reach this level, you get locked down. So you can't let the virus run.
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3) Solution 1. Hope mass testing works like it does in Korea and do a massive international coordination of mass testing in OECD countries while limiting travel between OECD and non-OECD. Snuff the virus out by June
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If they figure out an effective treatment that works from home, that's a major game changer. That seems quite possible within a few quarters. Then you don't have a hospital overloading problem, and people can just get infected in huge numbers.
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Word, like a preexisting antiviral that works or something. To me that feels like more reason to delay and to practice social disatnacing and not do what the UK is doing.
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