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This is my take on the economic effects of covid19. Why is it wrong? Let's tear this thing apart.pic.twitter.com/GEgE808jU0
I think this bad boy is nothing like the GFC. GFC was a liquidity crisis caused by entities thinking they had more money than they really did plus a demand shock (oil prices got too high). Liquidity crisis could evolve into a demand shock (firings), but covid19 is farther-reach..
..ing and larger than the GFC in its demand shock. Also it's likely, imho, to last longer. Further, gov't can solve liquidity problems. Time cures a virus. This is the time when QE/printing money etc. won't work. But, I am open to disagreement!
If we don't get a vaccine or a treatment, we could see a really weird depression where you get a massive amount of money printing layered onto a jobless despondent public, spending their $1200 checks on $12 netflix, depressed that the world can't make a vaccine or treatment.
I haven't been keeping up with the latest stimulus bills, but I think the best way out of this is to spend the money on revamping our healthcare and supply chain. That's real shit that puts people to work, and, y'know, addresses the root cause of the 100,000s who will die.
I keep hearing rumors that they're going to make me healthcare czar, but I never get the call.
I think you might be underestimating supply shocks.
At the beginning I thought I'd see big supply shocks, but now I think that was wrong. Manufacturing, work from home, and construction can continue with precautions. What are you thinking?
“$1000 cruise replaced with $10 Netflix”
First of all, what cruise only costs a grand? 
Second, this isn’t right. Consumption will change drastically in the short-term, but people will adjust by substituting. If there was one hole I’d poke in this mind map, it’s that.
(This may have come off snarky. The laugh emoji was because I thought it was a typo! Friendly input)
Totally agree with the spreading. Seems likely it either continues to spread (months?) or we take absurd-level precautions. I also agree with commenter the govt will throw tons of “money” at the problem. Politicians aren’t going down w/o a fight.
One thing I can’t yet reconcile - what is going on in China / Korea / Singapore? Perhaps the global infection curve will end up lower.. if most people have gotten a mild strain or not even known they’ve gotten it?
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