Molson Hart

For management of #Covid19 I think there’s one critical number: New infections per local hospital bed. There’s a threshold below which our medical system does not collapse. We need to stay below it. When we approach it, we need to quarantine until new infections subside.

After infections subside, the area will get reinfected and the cycle will repeat. Unless the virus mutates to become worse, each success peak will be lower because more and more people will be locally immune. I think this method is the best way to address limited health

Care capacity but also people’s’ desires to not be cooped up in their homes for a year. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Delay delay delay, until we have a vaccine. You can’t just “accept this risk”. Too many people will die becaus everyone will

Hit the hospital system at the same time, reducing overall care for covid but also every other ailment in the hospital.

Not so much a prediction as something I'd like to be true, but anyways: #COVID19 will be America's second sputnik moment. We will be so embarrassed by our incompetence relative to China, that we will start reinvesting in science and industry once again!

@molson_hart Apologies for those who get to see this for nth time...had to throw it on my predictions thread.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1237533313213972482 …