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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 12
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      Probably stupid to tweet this, and I do so with suitable humility knowing full well I could be totally wrong (no one really knows), but this really does feel like the bottom (for markets; not the economy/corona spread). 1/n

      8 replies 7 retweets 67 likes
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    2. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 12
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      When prices fall exponentially faster and faster, it is akin to an 'anti-bubble' - the inverse of climactic tops during bubbles, for much the same reasons in reverse. It is very characteristic of market lows.

      3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 12
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall

      I don't understand this. The principal reason bubbles occur is that people expect prices to continue to rise so they buy, driving up prices, expecting that to occur. This can happen in reverse and a big move could merely reinforce that behavior. Can you clarify?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 12
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      People expect/fear prices to keep falling so they sell faster and faster.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 12
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall

      Sure, but that doesn't mean the low is near. Most people and a lot of money don't understand and/or ignores fundamentals. You can drop 10% and quite easily drop another 10% the next day. If anything, it's mathematically easier to do that as tomorrow's 10% < today's.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 12
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Technically speaking, usually it does mean the lows are near. Has certainly been the case historically, and exponentially rapid price falls are often a sign of peak/climactic selling of a pace that will be increasingly hard to sustain.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 12
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall

      Sort of true for GFC. Took another 5 months to bottom. Doesn't look true for the Nasdaq during the internet bubble of '00. There's some relationship here with Mandelbrot's work on long memory of volatility periods in the market, but I can't remember how exactly that went.

      5:12 PM - 12 Mar 2020
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      • LateNightMayorYEG
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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