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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 11
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      Lagarde is warning of a corona shock similar to the GFC, but the only thing this downturn has in common with the GFC is that share prices and oil are going down, and the economy rapidly slowing. In all other respects the analogy is entirely false.

      7 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
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    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 11
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall

      You don’t think there is potential for financial contagion? So many different industries will have their incomes go to Zero. If any have debt it can set off a domino effect quite easily, just to name one means of similarity to CFC

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 11
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      There are risks for sure, but there are many different types of downturns/bear markets/crises, with different causal factors and potential vulnerabilities. Analogising the GFC is reductionist and the situation calls for greater nuance imo.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 11
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall

      Ok. I get you now. Imho, this will certainly unfold differently and must be responded to differently but is of similar magnitude (if not wayyyyy bigger) and will also require (different) significant government intervention.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Mar 11
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @LT3000Lyall

      I think it's possibly bigger than GFC because 1. corporate debt bubble and 2. horrible companies were kept alive longer than in the past from this. There's a feedback loop if they all go out of business, people lose jobs/spending power, this crashes more marginal businesses, etc

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 11
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      Replying to @orrdavid @Molson_Hart

      Banks are also healthy and the exposure of the major US banks to oil industry for eg is less than 10pc of tangible book, and not all of these loans are zeros. People are gettinf carried away. A doomsday scenario is not impossible but its by no means likely.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Mar 11
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall @Molson_Hart

      I doubt anyone knows the magnitude of the problem, especially on a global scale. I just know from my niche that things looked very bad. I just think it's possible to be a big problem, that's all. Not sure or anything.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 11
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      Replying to @orrdavid @LT3000Lyall

      Wait a second. The following industries are fucked: hotels, air travel, cruises, restaurants, events, event spaces, brick and mortar retail, and you’re saying that because they only have long-term debt they’re going to muddle through not having any revenues? Never mind their

      8:01 AM - 11 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 11
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid @LT3000Lyall

          Suppliers, employees, and landlords? This is likely to go on for months. China is far from back online. It’s very hard for me to see how this does not have massive multiplicative ramifications.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 11
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

          For months, yes they are all fucked. For months though, not years.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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