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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 11
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      Lagarde is warning of a corona shock similar to the GFC, but the only thing this downturn has in common with the GFC is that share prices and oil are going down, and the economy rapidly slowing. In all other respects the analogy is entirely false.

      7 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 11
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall

      You don’t think there is potential for financial contagion? So many different industries will have their incomes go to Zero. If any have debt it can set off a domino effect quite easily, just to name one means of similarity to CFC

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 11
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      There are risks for sure, but there are many different types of downturns/bear markets/crises, with different causal factors and potential vulnerabilities. Analogising the GFC is reductionist and the situation calls for greater nuance imo.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 11
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall

      Ok. I get you now. Imho, this will certainly unfold differently and must be responded to differently but is of similar magnitude (if not wayyyyy bigger) and will also require (different) significant government intervention.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Mar 11
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @LT3000Lyall

      I think it's possibly bigger than GFC because 1. corporate debt bubble and 2. horrible companies were kept alive longer than in the past from this. There's a feedback loop if they all go out of business, people lose jobs/spending power, this crashes more marginal businesses, etc

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Lyall Taylor‏ @LT3000Lyall Mar 11
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      Replying to @orrdavid @Molson_Hart

      Generally speaking, the debt is structured much differently though - maturities are typically fairly long & few companies are relying on short term paper. Base rates are lower and we dont know how long the opec+ disagreement and corona fallout lasts. It might only be a few months

      2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Mar 11
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      Replying to @LT3000Lyall @orrdavid

      Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart

      Yeah but more companies and larger when you add them up than just USA housing: https://twitter.com/molson_hart/status/1237752172651126788?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1237752172651126788 …

      Molson Hart added,

      Molson Hart @Molson_Hart
      Replying to @orrdavid
      So many more businesses will be affected and with them, their suppliers, lenders, landlords, and employees. Hard to read the tea leaves but this one could get hairy.
      7:51 AM - 11 Mar 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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