Molson Hart

3 is politically impossible, practically impossible, and oh yeah, society would shut down and cease to function. Going to be a fun 1-2 years!

Some would argue that it might be better to just let the virus do its thing, but that would result in a total overwhelming of our limited capacity hospitals, which would increase the mortality rate unnecessarily. I have a lot of fear and empathy for hospital workers right now:

They may have grueling hours, and worse, it looks like they seem to get the disease no matter what and it's particularly fatal for them. I wonder if there's some sort of relationship between the "amount" of exposure and severity not dissimilar to the idea of HIV+ vs. AIDS.

For management of #Covid19 I think there’s one critical number: New infections per local hospital bed. There’s a threshold below which our medical system does not collapse. We need to stay below it. When we approach it, we need to quarantine until new infections subside.

After infections subside, the area will get reinfected and the cycle will repeat. Unless the virus mutates to become worse, each success peak will be lower because more and more people will be locally immune. I think this method is the best way to address limited health

Care capacity but also people’s’ desires to not be cooped up in their homes for a year. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Delay delay delay, until we have a vaccine. You can’t just “accept this risk”. Too many people will die becaus everyone will